Brazil Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
2 0.93 (0.79, 1.08) 0.95 (0.81, 1.1) 0.92 (0.79, 1.06) 0.91 (0.77, 1.06) 0.94 (0.84, 1.04)
3 0.85 (0.71, 1.17) 1.14 (1.02, 1.25) 0.84 (0.71, 1) 0.92 (0.78, 1.07) 0.98 (0.87, 1.1)
4 0.91 (0.76, 1.18) 1.13 (1.01, 1.27) 0.89 (0.76, 1.03) 0.86 (0.75, 0.98) 1.12 (1.03, 1.22)
5 0.84 (0.74, 1.21) 1.16 (1.03, 1.31) 0.83 (0.74, 0.93) 0.92 (0.82, 1.02) 1.08 (1.01, 1.17)
6 1.15 (0.97, 1.2) 1.01 (0.95, 1.07) 0.99 (0.9, 1.09) 0.84 (0.78, 0.9) 1.15 (1.1, 1.2)
7 1.22 (1.08, 1.3) 1.14 (1.07, 1.21) 1.05 (0.96, 1.14) 1.05 (0.96, 1.12) 1.24 (1.17, 1.3)
8 1.28 (0.9, 1.34) 1.09 (1.02, 1.17) 1.12 (1.03, 1.2) 0.93 (0.86, 1.01) 1.28 (1.22, 1.34)
9 1.25 (1.02, 1.44) 1.26 (1.06, 1.44) 1.19 (0.95, 1.48) 1.16 (0.94, 1.43) 1.05 (0.91, 1.21)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
2 0.486 0.112 0.349 0.053
3 0.086 0.914 0.000 0.000
4 0.000 0.771 0.000 0.229
5 0.080 0.920 0.000 0.000
6 0.050 0.000 0.015 0.935
7 0.215 0.000 0.018 0.767
8 0.000 0.000 0.126 0.874
9 0.854 0.002 0.144 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
2 ach_noj 0.9797087 j21_all_ages 0.9322628 dehyd 0.4713877
3 j21_all_ages 0.9706136 dehyd 0.2171062 ach_noj 0.1745075
4 dehyd 0.9999995 j21_all_ages 0.8539985 ach_noj 0.3101832
5 dehyd 0.9999008 ach_noj 0.7047179 j21_all_ages 0.6977135
6 dehyd 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.1947519 j21_all_ages 0.1488149
7 dehyd 0.9951961 ach_noj 0.1851269 j21_all_ages 0.1079875
8 ach_noj 0.9985242 dehyd 0.8461622 j21_all_ages 0.3625965
9 j21_all_ages 0.9999999 dehyd 0.9342764 ach_noj 0.2843089

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Plots

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